Derek Gottlieb, PhD← All pages · WASBO · October 8, 2026

WASBO · OCTOBER 8, 2026

What your stakeholder surveys can tell you about your next referendum

Derek Gottlieb · School Perceptions

PART 1

Tax Tolerance

What your survey tells you about the ask

MANY OF OUR COMMUNITY SURVEYS ASK “LADDERED” QUESTIONS

14 Years of Survey Data Lets Us Measure Tax Tolerance

Survey question: Which operational referendum amount would you support? ($6 million, $4.5 million or $3 million per year, none, or not sure)

Weighted Support

The % of each respondent group (staff, parents, non-staff non-parents), adjusted to local electorate

Dataset

125 SP laddered questions, 2012-2026.

Source: 2025 community survey testing operational referendum

PART 1 · PRICE SENSITIVITY

Every 10% added to the ask costs about 5.5 points of support

−5.5 pts

per +10% of the ask · median of 125 price-ladder questions (middle half 3.9 to 7.1)

Same for both

Operating and facilities curves are indistinguishable (95% CI -2.6 to +0.3)

21 points apart

Parents start near 75%, non-parents near 55%, and both fall at the same rate

Source: School Perceptions community surveys with amount ladders, electorate-weighted. Chart draws the median fitted parent and non-parent slopes.

MANY OF OUR COMMUNITY SURVEYS ASK “LADDERED” QUESTIONS

How to use this estimate

It works at either end

62% weighted support at $6m? You could ask $7.2m
46% weighted support at $3m? You should ask $2.7m

Source: 2025 community survey testing operational referendum

PART 2

Trust

A decisive factor in maintaining capacity

PART 2 · THE PROBLEM

Operating referenda are getting harder to pass; capital isn't

Ballot design doesn't explain the drop.

Comparing 2022–25 with 2016–21, the odds of an operating question passing fell by more than half (odds ratio 0.43).

Adjusting for ask size, tax impact, timing, urgency, use of money and re-runs moves that only to 0.47.

Districts asked better and lost anyway. Something has changed.

Source: DPI referendum records, decided questions Jan 2013 – Apr 2026. Odds ratios: logistic models of passage, 668 operating questions, 2016–2025.

PART 2 · WHAT CHANGED

What Changed Across Eras? (COVID!)

Our surveys test general satisfaction on four dimensions

Survey question: How is the District doing in each of the following areas? Delivering a high-quality education; keeping the public informed; managing funds appropriately; building pride in the community. Poor, fair, good, great, or not sure

PART 2 · FISCAL TRUST

Fiscal trust is the strongest survey signal for operating asks

+3.2 pts

Yes vote per SD of fiscal trust on operating questions, net of poverty and locale (86 questions)

~2× the odds

of an operating question passing (odds ratio 2.2; 3.1 with ballot-design controls added)

And statewide, fiscal trust fell a full SD, 2021–2024

Source: community surveys linked to the district's next referendum within 18 months; %Yes with survey-year fixed effects, passage by conditional logit. Years with 10+ surveys.

PART 2 · TRUST AND COMMUNICATION

Communities generally judge spending and communication as one thing

r = .84

between fiscal trust and “keeping the public informed” on the same surveys

But communities didn't say you stopped informing them.

Since 2022, fiscal trust fell (-0.11, p = .004; -0.13 within the same districts) while “keeping the public informed” held (-0.02, p = .40). Communication is not enough!

Source: community surveys; linked operating questions, nearest survey per referendum (83). Trend: surveys launched before 2022 vs 2022 on.

PART 2 · SOME RESEARCH

Openness = Transparency + Engagement

“Openness includes both transparency in government’s performance and processes and active engagement with the public” (Teodoro, et al., 2022).

It’s not hippy-dippy stuff. Deloitte’s management consultants give the same advice (Eggers, et al., 2021)

Trust rises when people see institutions responding to their voice.

A community’s willingness to invest follows their level of trust.

That means:

Actively soliciting voice.

Trumpeting what you’re doing.

+30% in local tax revenue

In municipalities using PB (Touchton, et al., 2020)

PART 2 · TRUST IS BUILT BETWEEN REFERENDA

Our other climate surveys see it coming, one to two years out

+3.3 pts

Yes vote per SD of parent-rated “timely and transparent” communication, measured 1–2 years before the vote year (44 questions)

r = .51–.71

These parent and staff items track community fiscal trust in the same districts

2.2× the odds

of passing per SD of staff confidence in the board

Source: SP staff and parent climate surveys (annual, not timed to referenda), measured 1–2 school years before the vote year. Controls: ballot type, amount, season, partisan lean, bachelor's share, income, enrollment.

PART 2 · WHAT WE RECOMMEND

Engage your community on spending stuff early and often

Report how the money was spent, every year

Show what the last referendum bought and how funds were managed, on a regular schedule, not only when you're asking for more.

Make communication routine and two-way

Parent-rated “timely and transparent” communication predicts the vote a year or two out. Build feedback into the ordinary year.

Use your annual surveys as early warning

Track parent and staff ratings of communication, the board and direction every year; they move with the fiscal trust a district will need.

Then determine the ask

When the election year comes, set the ask at or below your survey's fundable ceiling and forecast with the weighted estimate.

These recommendations are our reading of associations across Wisconsin districts. The data show where trust is visible early; they do not show that more communication causes more Yes votes.

FIN

Thank You

On to the smarter people!